Posted by George Huhn on Tue, May 25, 2010 @ 12:19 PM
I was talking with a friend of mine, Dr. Richard Flanagan, a psychologist and co-author of the book The Six Disciplines of Breakthrough Learning: How to Turn Training and Development into Business Results, about his recent election to a non-profit Board of Trustees. Our discussion quickly turned to the number of new acronyms that he had heard being bandied about in his first meeting.
"I know what you mean," I said. "I often have meetings with clients where the acronym flow becomes too fast to follow."
So Richard told me how he solves that problem: he raises his hand and says that he is sorry that he can't understand because he is "dysacronymic."
"Most people at first express their sympathy, even though they don't know what 'dysacronymic' means."
So he explains:
"I coined the term "Dysacronymic" to mean confused by or unable to understand acronyms, an impairment in the ability to understand or interpret acronyms. I use the term especially in new settings where internal acronyms are bandied about: any company, government agency, or technology group being prime offenders, but all human systems seem to be afflicted with shortcuts assumed to be known and understood by all. I guess we also need a diagnostic term and description for human systems that are overburdened or blessed with many acronyms - maybe hyper-acronymic systems!"
"After I use it I always confess to making up the term and meaning no offense and then request acronym interpretation or explanation. Very often others express gratitude for the intervention - even insiders sometimes don't know the meanings but don't want to look bad by asking. I have found that sometimes the acronym users themselves can't explain them very well and have often forgotten the exact terms that the letters stand for."
The project management and project portfolio management fields are loaded with acronyms; this page from Project Management Knowledge lists 87 project management related acronyms. And, of course, many acronyms have multiple meanings. Our Data Machines website gets hits from people searching for information about "parts per million" as it shares the same acronym as "project portfolio management" (PPM).
Richard told me that he is planning to write up a "clinical" description that "will follow the DSM-IV diagnostic descriptions model." For those of you like Richard and me, who are dysacronymic, DSM is the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" of the American Psychiatric Association."
So, are you dysacronymic, too? If you are, thanks to Dr. Flanagan, at least now we'll have a clinical diagnostic model to point to that explains our affliction.
But does anybody have any cures?
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Posted by George Huhn on Mon, May 17, 2010 @ 02:27 PM
What does it mean when a meteorologist says "the chance of rain today is 60%?"
Each day in the United States, a massive amount of data is collected from weather stations, satellites, and weather balloons from around the world and sent to the National Meteorological Center near Washington, D.C. The data is processed to give a multi-dimensional picture of global atmospheric conditions, and then it is analyzed using various algorithms to develop local weather forecasts and predictions.
But this isn't how they make the "percent chance of precipitation" predictions. Even with the massive amount of data and super computer speed, their predictive algorithms alone just aren't good enough. So they use comparisons to historical data.
Basically, they take the current atmospheric conditions and compare them with days in the past that had very similar conditions. So when they say that "the chance of rain today is 60%," it means that it rained on 60% of the days in the comparison set.
And guess what? Assuming the data was entered properly, these predictions are 100% reliable all the time. Why? Because they are only predictions of probability – they aren't "wrong" on a particular day, whether it rains or not. But whether they are accurate or not in the long term is an entirely different question.
The only way to determine if the predictions are accurate is to collect the data and plot the actual versus the predicted conditions over time to learn the margin of error. If it only rained on 30% of the days that the prediction was 60%, then there is a problem with the data or the data processing.
You can do the same type of probability prediction and testing with your business projects, too. The more accurate your estimates, the more confidence you will have in your overall project-value ranking in your project portfolios.
Developing more accurate project risk estimates requires 4 basic activities:
1) Identifying the key drivers of cost, time, and resource risks in completing project tasks.
2) Preparing a database of these tasks that includes the corresponding cost, time, and resource estimates assigned to each project and the basis for those estimates at the beginning of the project.
3) Tracking the actual costs, times, and resources used performing the task as each task is completed.
4) Comparing the actual costs, times, and resources with the starting estimates.
After you have maintained this database for a period of time, you will be able to plot the actual versus the predicted results. This plot will show you the accuracy of your cost, time, and resource estimates as well as revealing the distribution of the actual results. (You will probably learn that your cost estimates were too low, your time estimates were too short, and your resource estimates were for too few. And that is a good thing to learn.) Eventually, you will be able to use the actual results data as a basis for future probability predictions, including understanding the uncertainty in those estimates.
I saw the data of one major pharmaceutical company who did this for their project "percent probability of success" estimates. The data between 20 and 85% was surprisingly linear; for example, about 50% of the projects that had "percent probability of success estimates" of 50% were ultimately successful. It also showed that all projects that had an estimated "percent probability of success" of 85% or greater succeeded and all that had an estimate of 20% or less failed.
If you’re involved in project portfolio management and you're looking for ways to improve your project planning, compiling and analyzing your historical data is a great way to test and improve your future estimates.
Does your company track and analyze historical project management data? Why do you think that most businesses don't?
What are the best uses of your company's dollars and resources? Optsee
® can tell you. Optsee
® is a project portfolio management and budgeting optimization tool unlike any that you've ever seen.
Click here to find out more.
Posted by George Huhn on Mon, Apr 26, 2010 @ 09:55 AM
Looking for new and better ideas from your project team? Thinking about having a typical "
brainstorming" session? Don't bother. New research shows there's a better way.
"Brainstorming" usually consists of people meeting specifically for the purpose of coming up with new ideas around a specific topic. Any and all ideas are recorded, and evaluation of individual ideas is postponed so as not to inhibit idea generation or discard ideas prematurely. Brainstorming is proposed to work on the basis that ideas from each person in the group will stimulate new and different ideas from others, therefore, more ideas will lead to better ideas. That's the theory, anyway.
However, in a recent article published in the
INFORMS journal
Management Science entitled
"Idea Generation and the Quality of the Best Idea," researchers found that most of the literature on brainstorming focused on the number of ideas generated, but not the quality or the selection of the best ideas. Furthermore, they found that the literature showed the opposite of what brainstorming promised: "research has unequivocally found that the number of ideas generated (i.e., productivity) is significantly higher when individuals work by themselves, and the average quality of ideas is no different between individual and team processes."
In other words, brainstorming produces fewer ideas than individual efforts, but about the same quality of ideas.
1) the average quality of ideas generated,
2) the number of ideas generated,
3) the variance in the quality of ideas generated, and
4) the ability of the group to discern the quality of the
ideas.
In their study, they compared two processes: a typical brainstorming structure and a "hybrid" structure. In the brainstorming structure, each team of 4 was given 30 minutes to complete an idea generation challenge. At the end of the 30 minutes, each team was given 5 minutes to develop a consensus-based selection and ranking of the team's five best ideas. In the hybrid structure, individuals were asked to work separately on an idea generation challenge for 10 minutes and then asked to rank their own ideas at the end of the 10 minutes. These individuals were then randomly placed in teams of 4 to share and discuss their ideas and generate new ideas for 20 minutes. At the end of this phase, each team was given 5 minutes to develop a consensus-based selection and ranking of the team's five best ideas.
The ideas were then evaluated by a panel of 41 MBA students who had received formal training in the valuation of new products.
Their conclusion? They found the "hybrid structure" produced 3 times as many ideas per unit of time compared to brainstorming, and the average quality of the ideas was significantly higher.
So, the next time you're trying to generate some breakthrough ideas on your project team, be sure to let your project team members generate some new ideas on their own before you try to do it together as a team. This research shows you'll get much better results doing it that way.
And if you're involved in
project portfolio management, be sure to share this information with your project managers. Sometimes it only takes one breakthrough idea to make the difference between a project that is delivered on-time and on-budget and one that fails to meet its goals.
Follow-up: Two of the researchers who wrote this brainstorming article were interviewed to discuss their work in developing systems to help teams find great ideas.
Read more about it here.
What are the best uses of your company's dollars and resources? Optsee
® can tell you. Optsee
® is a project portfolio management and budgeting optimization tool unlike any that you've ever seen.
Click here to find out more.
Posted by George Huhn on Mon, Feb 22, 2010 @ 05:25 AM
"Does it make the decision for me?"
That's a question that somebody asked me again last week, and it is a question that I hear often from people when I tell them about our software. Underneath this question there is an unspoken worry that using a decision analysis tool will somehow override their often very good subjective decision-making ability and authority. I answer it by explaining that it is something like the difference between digging a basement for a house with a hand shovel or a using back-hoe: you still get to choose where and how the basement is dug (the most important subjective decision), but the back-hoe will give you a much faster and better result.
In other words, a good decision analysis tool will enhance and support your subjective judgment by giving you a wider and more focused view of your alternatives.
Decision analysts like to say that they help people make "more objective decisions." This is true if the methodology is sound. (By the way, that is a big "if." Lousy methodology can make things worse.) But in complex and unique business decisions, objective analysis doesn't mean that you can just feed in some numbers and out pops the perfect answer. Instead, a good decision analysis tool will move the subjective analysis to a higher and more strategic level of the decision-making process while leaving the objective number-crunching to the application.
In project portfolio analysis, even using sophisticated tools like Optsee®, there is still a lot of subjectivity that enters into the analysis. For example, there's project risk assessment, budget estimates, and NPV valuations, just to name a few. Then there's assigning weights to the criteria so the project ranking reflects your company's strategy. Finally, there is trying different budget and optimization strategies to select a portfolio that brings you the highest value based on your project set, budget and resource constraints, and business goals.
How is this more or less subjective than doing it manually?
Using spreadsheets or labor-intensive "one model at a time" analyses bog you down in a very low tactical level of subjectively trying to find an optimal portfolio, one project at a time, from billions of possible portfolios. And when you're doing it as a team, this process can quickly become tedious and non-strategic as discussions focus on arguing over the subjective criteria of including or excluding individual projects while losing sight of the big picture.
In other words, when you're at the bottom of a basement digging with a shovel, it is hard to see what the whole thing looks like from the top.
With a portfolio and budgeting analysis tool like Optsee®, you move way up the strategic scale, from picking projects to build a portfolio to picking an optimized portfolio from a few already-optimized alternatives. The "objective" parts – ranking the projects based on value and optimizing against different combinations of business constraints – has already been done for you. So you get to focus your time, energy, and judgment on the most important strategic question – how you can allocate you company's resources to get the highest return from your portfolio.
Like using a back-hoe instead of a hand shovel to dig a basement, using software that moves you up from just making tactical decisions to making more strategic decisions makes sense. But are there places in your company where you're still digging basements with shovels?
What are the best uses of your company's dollars and resources? Optsee
® can tell you. Optsee
® is a project portfolio management and budgeting optimization tool unlike any that you've ever seen.
Click here to find out more.
Posted by George Huhn on Wed, Jan 13, 2010 @ 02:56 PM
If you're trying to sell a big cost-saving project to senior managers, then you are likely to be competing against a lot of other big projects, including sales and marketing and new product development projects. Chances are that you're going to need to sell your project to people who don't necessarily have the background to understand the technical details and the benefits of your project. And if they don't understand it then you are going to have a difficult time selling it.
So it can help to present your project's cost-saving numbers in terms of the equivalent increase in sales that your company would need to achieve the same bottom-line result.
Why?
Because increasing sales is hard and expensive – and every manager knows it. Framing your cost-saving project in terms of sales numbers that everybody understands can help you sell it across technical and non-technical departments and get it included in the
project portfolio.
There are three basic strategies to increase profits in a company: increasing the number of units sold, increasing the marginal profit from each unit sold, or cutting costs. Allocating resources to maximize profits from these three often-competing strategies is one of a manager's greatest challenges. By stating your cost-savings in terms of sales numbers, you're helping your management make a direct comparison between investing in your cost-saving project and investing in projects for increasing sales.
Therefore, you'll want to know both the equivalent increase in the number of units and the percentage that increase represents. For example, instead of just saying "this project will save us $5 - $7 million over the next five years," you should say "this project will save us $5 – 7 million over the next 5 years, which is equivalent to a 5 - 7% increase in sales above forecast or 1 million additional units of our best selling widget."
If investing in your cost-cutting project can add more cash to your company's bottom-line than investing the same amount to increase sales, then you have a very strong case for your project. If it doesn't add more cash, all other things being equal, then the money would probably be better invested in increasing sales.
What are the best uses of your company's dollars and resources? Optsee
® can tell you. Optsee
® is a project portfolio management and budgeting optimization tool unlike any that you've ever seen.
Click here to find out more.
Posted by George Huhn on Mon, Jan 04, 2010 @ 02:08 PM
If you don't know the values and costs of not executing your projects then you're probably not maximizing the value of your project portfolio and you may be working on the wrong projects.
When project portfolio managers meet to decide which projects that their businesses are going to execute and which they are going to reject, they often have a summary business case for each project that includes the business value and attributes. Business attributes can include selection criteria such as
net present value (NPV),
return on investment (ROI), costs, resource requirements, and risks.
Thus, when the managers select a project to execute, the value and associated costs of the project are added to the total portfolio value and costs, respectively. When they reject a project, usually the identical "if-executed" values and costs are subtracted from the total portfolio because there is no separate evaluation of the value and costs of not executing the project. Therefore, the value of a rejected project is essentially set to zero by default and the total portfolio loses value.
When they reject a project in this way, any intrinsic positive or negative values and costs derived from not executing the project are not factored-in to the final portfolio. And when these values and costs are not factored-in, the total portfolio value and cost can be dramatically over- or under- estimated.
There are many ways a project can add or subtract value from a portfolio. Even projects that have negative individual ROIs can add value, such as a project that adds revenue to a product line because of its strategic fit. Analogously, there are many ways that not executing a project can add or subtract value from a portfolio. For example, positive value can come from increased revenue streams if the rejected project would have cannibalized revenues from other products; and negative value can come from a loss of revenue from a product line that could have been enhanced by the executing the project. Costs that can be incurred from not executing a project might include costs associated with contract terminations, closing facilities, and reassigning resources.
So, perhaps counter-intuitively, you can see that rejecting (not executing) a particular project may actually add more real value to a project portfolio than selecting another project!
How can you ensure that you're capturing the value and costs of not executing a project?
For each potential project in your portfolio, you could create an associated "Not" project that includes the overall value for not executing the project calculated using the identical attribute categories (rewards, costs, risk, etc.). Then, before
optimizing the portfolio against constraints, you could set up a mandatory dependency between these two projects such that either the actual project is selected
or its corresponding "Not" project is selected. In this way, either the value and costs of executing the project OR the value and costs of not executing the project are included in the portfolio totals.
Of course, if the value and costs of not executing a project are truly "0" and do not impact the total portfolio value and costs, then you don't need to create an associated "Not" project.
In our
project portfolio management tool Optsee®, you can perform rigorous
project portfolio optimizations against multiple constraints (such as limited money and resources) while maintaining four different types of project dependency relationships, including an "Or" relationship. When you select the "Or" dependency relationship between two projects, either one project or the other (but not both) are included in the optimized portfolio. This way it is easy to set up and accurately analyze the real value and costs of your portfolios under different constraint combinations because you're factoring-in the values and attributes of both selected and rejected projects.
Do you currently assign values and costs to not executing projects in your project portfolios? What other suggestions do you have for capturing these values?
What are the best uses of your company's dollars and resources? Optsee
® can tell you. Optsee
® is a project portfolio management and budgeting optimization tool unlike any that you've ever seen.
Click here to find out more.
Posted by George Huhn on Tue, Nov 17, 2009 @ 12:36 PM
I’ve also been toying for the last several years with the idea of developing a turn-key module for senior undergraduates or graduate business students in project portfolio management and/or decision analysis using Optsee®. It would be similar to an assignment I had at Wharton in an R&D Management class taught by Professor Earnest Gilmont, except that we didn't use any software or decision analysis tools.
Each student would get a copy of Optsee® that is pre-loaded with an unoptimized portfolio of projects with pre-assigned attributes (such as rewards, costs, resources, risks, etc.) and sets of constraints created for a hypothetical company. The students would form teams, and each team would be assigned to take their set of projects and develop an optimized portfolio that was targeted for different strategic goals. For example:
- one team would develop a portfolio designed to make the company attractive for being acquired
- one team would develop a portfolio designed for implementing an outsourcing strategy
- one team would develop a portfolio to maximize short-term gain
- one team would develop a portfolio to maximize long-term sustainability
Each team would then put together a presentation and/or a paper presenting their portfolio and how they came to agree on it. This would require the team to agree on what attributes to use, the shapes of the attribute curves, the attribute weights, and what constraints they would need to apply.
I think that this could all be put into a nice educational package that would give students an excellent understanding of developing strategic project portfolios based on business goals through their own experiences and by seeing the different portfolios developed by their classmates. It would also give them a fundamental understanding and appreciation of multi-criteria or multiattribute decision analysis, prioritization using Monte Carlo simulations, and optimization against multiple constraints.
So I am curious. How did you learn about Project Portfolio Management? And if you're a professor, how do you teach it?
What are the best uses of your company's dollars and resources? Optsee
® can tell you. Optsee
® is a project portfolio management and budgeting optimization tool unlike any that you've ever seen.
Click here to find out more.